Somali Port Falls, But Shebab's Campaign Far From Over
https://nigeriaafrica1.blogspot.com/2012/09/somali-port-falls-but-shebab-campaign.html
The Al-Qaeda-linked Al Shebab, regarded by the West as a credible threat to global peace, may have pulled out of their last Somalian stronghold of Kismayo, but the new national government must move quickly to make their defeat more than a minor setback.
Analysts however warn that despite the fact that Shebab have withdrawn from the port city, peace is still elusive in the war-ravaged nation.
For almost one year, Kenyan Army and African Union forces have waged a slow but consistent campaign against the Shebab.
After days of threatening an invasion, the troops launched a beach assault Friday on the southern Somali port city of Kismayo.
A day later, the rebel group's spokesman Ali Mohamud Rage announced their abandoning of Kismayo, explaining the "tactical retreat" with the need "to prevent civilian casualties" brought by an all-out confrontation.
Analysts agree that the loss of Kismayo was the biggest military and political setback the Shebab have faced since the war against the Islamist organization was launched.
"The fall of Kismayo is a game changer because a key source of revenue for the Shebab has been stifled," Joakim Gundel, a Nairobi-based academic with local think-tank Bridges Analytics told AFP.
"This represents an end to Shebab as an insurgent group with ambitions for territorial control," he added.
Many believe that Shebab will be hardest hit financially by the fall of the key port city, the latest to have gone into the hands of African Union and Somali forces.
"They rely on the port for financial support, benefiting from the charcoal and sugar trade," Laura Hammond, a senior lecturer at London's School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), told AFP.
Gundel said that the fall will take Shebab outside their comfort zone and force them to seek financial support elsewhere.
"They will have to be dependent on external resources... In a world in which regimes supporting groups such as Shebab are falling, this will not be an easy task," he said.
He added that the financial pressures may also cause fault lines among the smaller militias that came together to form the Al-Qaeda linked group.
The odds may be firmly stacked against them, but it is emerging that Kismayo's fall does not spell the end of Shebab.
News Source: AFP
For almost one year, Kenyan Army and African Union forces have waged a slow but consistent campaign against the Shebab.
After days of threatening an invasion, the troops launched a beach assault Friday on the southern Somali port city of Kismayo.
A day later, the rebel group's spokesman Ali Mohamud Rage announced their abandoning of Kismayo, explaining the "tactical retreat" with the need "to prevent civilian casualties" brought by an all-out confrontation.
Analysts agree that the loss of Kismayo was the biggest military and political setback the Shebab have faced since the war against the Islamist organization was launched.
"The fall of Kismayo is a game changer because a key source of revenue for the Shebab has been stifled," Joakim Gundel, a Nairobi-based academic with local think-tank Bridges Analytics told AFP.
"This represents an end to Shebab as an insurgent group with ambitions for territorial control," he added.
Many believe that Shebab will be hardest hit financially by the fall of the key port city, the latest to have gone into the hands of African Union and Somali forces.
"They rely on the port for financial support, benefiting from the charcoal and sugar trade," Laura Hammond, a senior lecturer at London's School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), told AFP.
Gundel said that the fall will take Shebab outside their comfort zone and force them to seek financial support elsewhere.
"They will have to be dependent on external resources... In a world in which regimes supporting groups such as Shebab are falling, this will not be an easy task," he said.
He added that the financial pressures may also cause fault lines among the smaller militias that came together to form the Al-Qaeda linked group.
The odds may be firmly stacked against them, but it is emerging that Kismayo's fall does not spell the end of Shebab.
News Source: AFP
