Nigeria - Return Of Militants To Creeks Unlikely In Niger Delta
https://nigeriaafrica1.blogspot.com/2013/04/nigeria-return-of-militants-to-creeks.html
Despite a deadly attack on police and emailed threats from a militant group, Niger Delta militants are unlikely to resurrect the campaign of violence that once hobbled Africa's biggest energy industry.
Many former militant leaders are now accepting money from President Goodluck Jonathan's government, and are unlikely to relaunch the campaign of kidnappings and attacks on pipelines that helped spike world crude prices from 2006-2009.
Militants claiming to be from the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), whose leader Henry Okah is doing time in a South African jail for setting bombs off in Nigeria's capital, claimed responsibility for an April 5 attack that killed 12 policemen.
They warned oil companies against a "false sense of security".
MEND also claimed on Sunday it had destroyed an oil well owned by Shell that has been spilling crude into the creeks of the delta, stirring memories of a time such attacks nearly halved Nigeria's oil output.
But authorities in the delta suggest the attack on the police boat was driven by a local dispute between disgruntled ex-militants and their commander over money - not politics.
And in the second incident, an oil spill appears to have been caused by a rupture on a Shell pipeline - probably hacked into by oil thieves - rather than militants blowing up a well.
The emailed statements arrived from Jomo Gbomo, a pseudonym and email account MEND has used. But nevertheless, security officials do not believe they represent a serious threat.
MEND halted its offensive after the government agreed to pay former militants under an amnesty deal, and organised militancy seems unlikely to resurface while those payments continue - even if it is anyone's guess what will happen when they stop.
The boat incident still highlights the fragile nature of the amnesty process. While a number militant commanders live in luxury, many of their foot soldiers remain unemployed and get meagre pay offs, if they get them at all. Tensions run high.
Unless government solves the root causes of unrest in the oil region by creating jobs and raising living standards, there will always be a risk of ex-militants returning to the creeks at some point.
Militants claiming to be from the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), whose leader Henry Okah is doing time in a South African jail for setting bombs off in Nigeria's capital, claimed responsibility for an April 5 attack that killed 12 policemen.
They warned oil companies against a "false sense of security".
MEND also claimed on Sunday it had destroyed an oil well owned by Shell that has been spilling crude into the creeks of the delta, stirring memories of a time such attacks nearly halved Nigeria's oil output.
But authorities in the delta suggest the attack on the police boat was driven by a local dispute between disgruntled ex-militants and their commander over money - not politics.
And in the second incident, an oil spill appears to have been caused by a rupture on a Shell pipeline - probably hacked into by oil thieves - rather than militants blowing up a well.
The emailed statements arrived from Jomo Gbomo, a pseudonym and email account MEND has used. But nevertheless, security officials do not believe they represent a serious threat.
MEND halted its offensive after the government agreed to pay former militants under an amnesty deal, and organised militancy seems unlikely to resurface while those payments continue - even if it is anyone's guess what will happen when they stop.
The boat incident still highlights the fragile nature of the amnesty process. While a number militant commanders live in luxury, many of their foot soldiers remain unemployed and get meagre pay offs, if they get them at all. Tensions run high.
Unless government solves the root causes of unrest in the oil region by creating jobs and raising living standards, there will always be a risk of ex-militants returning to the creeks at some point.
